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Go Fresno State.

Preferences: MyDD vs. Daily Kos

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Vote in the poll on this link and let MyDD know how you feel about the Clinton-Obama war that is paralyzing the netroots:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/3/13/2224 5/7192

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Vote in the What's Up With MyDD poll.

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MyDD needs to lighten up

I am whole-heartedly disappointed with many of the comments being made, and the tone in which they are being written. This is not the MyDD I remember. I thought it was a tiny minority of the posts, but many of the Recommended Diaries (especially the comments) are just full of unprecedented, pointless bickering. I really cannot wait for the nomination to be over because it has brought out the worst in us. I know people participating in MyDD are probably passionate and thought-provoking people, but we've gone too far.

I feel everyone should be free to say what they think, and I reject and denounce any attempts to limit free speech. However, the MyDD community needs to voluntary rise above the vitriol and start engaging in civil discourse. We do not need to be slinging mud like Axelrod and Wolfson - let's rise above this nonsense.

Exit Polls are Tight: TX, OH, RI

Texas is within two points - Hillary with an ever so slight edge.

Rhode Island has Hillary up by 4

Ohio is within 3 points - again, Hillary has the edge there.

Exit polls indicate Hillary has the potential to eke out wins in 3/4 contest today, but there it is also possible that Obama won all 4. We just gotta wait and see.

Clinton ahead by 2-3 in Ohio Exit Polls

Based on exit polls made available by CNN and MSNBC, Clinton is ahead by about 50.5-48.0. Based on this, the race is too close to call still at 7:45 PM.

Full disclosure: I support Obama, and I predicted Hillary would win OH 52-47. Chuck Todd just said that even if Hillary does eke out a 2-point victory, her net delegates could be anywhere from -1 to +5 out of OH. Vermont will likely be +5 for Obama. If Ohio is so close, what does this say about Texas???

March 4 Predictions

My predictions for tonight:

Vermont (polls close at 7 EST)
Obama 63
Clinton 35
Vermont called at 7:01 EST

Ohio (polls close at 7:30 EST)
Clinton 52
Obama 47
Poll closing extended until 9:30 due to weather
Ohio called at 11PM EST

Rhode Island (polls close at 9 EST)
Clinton 53
Obama 45
RI called at 9:45 EST

Texas (polls close at 9 EST)
Obama 50
Clinton 48
Texas called Wednesday morning. Clinton leading early. Late Houston and D/FW precincts swing it to Obama overnight.

Wednesday: 10 superdelegates announce for Obama. Pressure mounts for Hillary to step aside. Obama nets 15-20 delegates including results from Texas Caucus.

Beyond: Obama blows past Clinton in Wyoming and Mississippi, winning over 65% in each state. Clinton drops out before Pennsylvania. Obama beats McCain 305-233 in the Electoral College.

Why Obama Will Win

As we all are basking in the history of this moment, scholars are already trying to figure out how Barack Obama pulled off one of the biggest upsets in political history. For the die-hard HRC'ers reading this, consider this: even if Hillary Clinton somehow manages to eke out the nomination, the Obama Movement would have still surpassed all of our realistic expectations.

LESS THAN FOUR YEARS AGO, most of us were introduced to Barack Obama at the 2004 Democratic Convention. YES, it's true! He emerged on the national scene less than 4 years ago, giving a keynote address while 'merely' a 7-year veteran of the Illinois State Senate. In a post-September 11 world, how has this phenomenon reached the cusp of history so quickly?

There are numerous reasons for this, many will argue, but I want to focus on one: his mastery of PR. One only needs to look at the lobbyist scandal that McCain's campaign is engulfed in, not to mention all of the Whitewater baggage that Hillary carries with her, to see its benefits. You're always hearing, and will continue to hear, that Obama gets biased media coverage in his favor. What no one ever says is that sometimes, with a candidate as disciplined and (I would like to hope) ethical as Obama, maybe it's warranted. Wouldn't you expect David to get some favorable press as he's slaying Goliath? Obama and Hillary have run one of the most civil nominating contests ever, and Obama has largely stayed above the little fray there has been, even as we've seen HRC's recent public meltdowns.

More importantly, we saw a candidate who was extremely earnest about his challenge of earning the public trust. Time after time, we saw Obama articulately dispel the fallacious 'experience' construct that politicians at every level have been manipulating forever. Just look at his speeches after the primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and beyond. You will see a masterful introduction of the candidate to a country that is yearning for a change. In Iowa, he gave us the shot of inspirational "hope-mongering" that has captivated us ever since. In New Hampshire, we saw Obama dispel any notion that he was peddling false hopes, justifying why the time is now, and emblazing the battle cry "Yes We Can" into the American psyche. In South Carolina, Obama gave the unifying message that hard fought change is possible, and challenged us to beat down the cynics that have prevented meaningful progress for eternity.

What we've witnessed is a carefully choreographed product rollout, and Obama is that product. Every step of the way, Obama has acted to reassure the weary public that he is worthy of us daring to believe again, to ignore the naysayers that relish in the status quo. Without this concerted, perpetual effort to reassure the public that the risk is worth taking, Obama would not have gotten this far. He must continue to reassure the public to get elected, and you will see Republicans stumble over themselves to convince us all that, yes, we have all been "duped" by Barack Obama. You even have HRC talking about "celestial choirs" as she mocks Obama's inspiring movement. The general election will hinge on trench warfare between the hope-mongers and the hope-dashers, and Obama will need to continue his masterful PR campaign to pull this off. He must reassure us all that he is worth the gamble every step of the way, and remind us why it isn't that big of a gamble after all, especially if we compare the Obama gamble to the McCain gamble. Otherwise, the pundits will all be talking about how this young black guy almost tricked us into handing over the keys of the White House to an exceptionally talented con man.

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